Analysis | 113.3 points per 100 rounds! NBA’s average offensive efficiency this season has been the highest in history.

Ralph Lawler, Los Angeles Clippers’s former commentator, coined a maxim: in the NBA, the team that scores 100 points first wins the game. But the situation this season is the most inconsistent with this argument in history. Earlier this week, Portland Blazers scored 100 points against Washington Wizards, but lost the game with the now-common score of 121123.
According to Cleaning the Glass, all teams scored an average of 105.8 points per 100 rounds in 2015, almost unchanged from 105.5 in 2005. But since then (2015), the league record for this data has been broken four times. Last year, the league averaged 112.3 points per 100 rounds. Now, the season has passed by about 1/3, which is already 113.3 points.
In fact, the current figures do not fully reflect the scoring explosion this season, because the offensive level almost always improves with the progress of the regular season. In the past 19 seasons, except for the ridiculously high foul rate at the beginning of the 2014-15 season, the average offensive efficiency in the first 30 days of the season has always been lower than the average offensive efficiency of the whole season.
This year seems to be no exception. In October and November, the league’s average offensive efficiency was 113.1, but it has risen to 114.4 in the past two weeks, and there is still a long way to go before next April.
The surge in offensive efficiency over the past seven seasons can be largely attributed to more three-point projections. In the 2021-22 season, 3-pointers accounted for 36.8% of all teams’ total shots, compared with 24.4% in 2014-15. Each shot averaged 0.84 points, while each 3-pointer averaged 1.08; the few feet back in the shot turned out to be helpful in getting more points.
Stylistically, NBA’s offense has become more complex. It relies less on one-on-one and more on tactics that require two players-such as hand-to-hand passing after dribbling, or even three-player tactics-such as Spanish pick and roll. Coupled with the way referees have encouraged offense recently, it has become very difficult to defend these tactics.
So what are the details of this season? First of all, many teams have a stronger starting line-up. At this stage of last season, Owen could not play for the Brooklyn Nets, Zion and Murray were still out due to injury, and Lillard had just been reimbursed for the season. This season, in addition to those teams with the return of stars, the deal made by Indiana Pacers and Sacramento Kings also seems to be helpful to both sides’ performance on the court.
In terms of policy, a new rule issued by the league punishes tactical fouls that deliberately prevent a fast break, successfully increasing the average score per switch offense by 0.04 points compared with the same period last season.
The league’s half-court offense has also made remarkable progress. The percentage of shots from the basket has increased by two percentage points, which may just be a statistical noise, but it may also be caused by the continued devaluation of the defender. This devaluation comes from each team’s pursuit of the small ball lineup, which increases the number of offensive organizers on the court, but reduces the team’s ability to protect the basket.
In particular, it is worth noting that each team has slightly increased the number of attacks on the basket. Layups and dunks are still much easier than three-pointers, so the statistical skew of shooting data to the basket also raises the score.
Players also get more fouls when they are closer to the basket, and free throws are an efficient way to score. So far this season, teams have averaged 20.8 free throws per 100 shots. The figure is the highest since the 2016-17 season, up from 17.9 in the same period last season, when referees were still focused on cracking down on unnatural fouls, but this season they fell in love with the feeling of whistling again.
The increase in shots under the basket has also created more offensive rebounds. This season, attackers have turned 26.9% of their missed shots into offensive rebounds, up from 26.0% in the first two months of the 2021-22 season. Offensive rebounds usually produce offensive rounds with higher-than-average efficiency, because the ball is taken very close to the basket, and if multiple attackers scramble for offensive rebounds instead of going back to defense, their defense will get worse.
Cory Jez, Utah Jazz’s former head of data analysis, noted that the offensive rebounding rates of 30 teams in the league are uneven, which means that those teams that lag behind in this indicator have a lot of room for improvement. “an offensive rebound gives you a lot more to gain than the loss you suffer when you give up changing defense.” “this is one of the benefits that can be achieved without much effort in today’s alliances,” Jez said.
Abandoning inefficient shooting may allow teams to continue to score higher. Despite claims that China is dead, nearly 1/3 of all shots now come from the area with a lower shooting rate, from four feet (1.22m) from the basket to the three-point line. Back singles have been greatly reduced compared to the past, but many big people who are not good at back to the basket can still get the chance to turn their back.
“over the past decade, the increase in efficiency has been broadly linear.” “sometimes it’s supposed to fall back, but we don’t seem to have reached that stage yet,” Jez said. So this is a really interesting question: when will it stop growing? At present, there is no evidence that that day will come soon. ”